Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-18 2.573084 2.991646 3.454933 4.005525 4.641872 5.354089 6.211647
2026-01-25 1.878354 2.427970 3.101051 3.985007 5.114636 6.509362 8.362184
2026-02-01 1.371956 1.935419 2.685345 3.754383 5.237503 7.221059 10.075115
2026-02-08 1.069116 1.623965 2.416155 3.626177 5.424711 7.996430 11.951771
2026-02-15 0.880967 1.427103 2.255889 3.599882 5.720191 8.931834 14.162843
2026-02-22 0.775680 1.330361 2.218821 3.737873 6.263647 10.288375 17.182261
2026-03-01 0.661301 1.195271 2.094002 3.706926 6.520728 11.216546 19.637394
2026-03-08 0.564738 1.071668 1.964976 3.641729 6.699558 12.024758 21.986058
2026-03-15 0.495952 0.984804 1.883841 3.643156 6.986249 13.042394 24.821831
2026-03-22 0.474441 0.982188 1.953305 3.927680 7.823332 15.139325 29.885136
2026-03-29 0.431344 0.929664 1.919489 4.007387 8.278959 16.583418 33.903542
2026-04-05 0.392659 0.879484 1.882010 4.072242 8.710306 18.028729 38.104572
2026-04-12 0.351528 0.819486 1.819945 4.086690 9.061169 19.401123 42.436993
2026-04-19 0.312063 0.756876 1.743759 4.061630 9.330574 20.655590 46.731991
2026-04-26 0.262638 0.662672 1.583580 3.825310 9.102565 20.828605 48.725444
2026-05-03 0.227743 0.596813 1.477011 3.694279 9.091281 21.469474 51.849437
2026-05-10 0.204000 0.554301 1.418400 3.667346 9.318372 22.675554 56.442594
2026-05-17 0.192258 0.540549 1.427452 3.807815 9.970669 24.955660 63.904188
2026-05-24 0.173122 0.503621 1.372317 3.776282 10.188135 26.222798 69.063575
2026-05-31 0.154737 0.465436 1.307829 3.709883 10.305568 27.258475 73.785734
2026-06-07 0.141338 0.439042 1.270676 3.711334 10.602700 28.787619 79.997693
2026-06-14 0.140147 0.448437 1.333617 4.001072 11.728186 32.615936 92.840774
2026-06-21 0.131319 0.433072 1.324053 4.082238 12.282839 34.999588 102.083334